Quantcast
Channel: election_2013
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 53

Why the 2017 Mayoral Primary Is So Different From Four Years Ago

0
0

As voters head to the polls Tuesday, it comes after a much different race for the top of the ticket compared to 2013. For Mayor Bill de Blasio, the incumbent Democrat faced slim competition from four rivals. While the race isn’t over until November, the 2017 primary serves as a stark contrast to the race four years ago — where the real action was. The most obvious reason for de Blasio’s relatively unobstructed path is his position as an incumbent, and more importantly, one who's term-limited in four years, when the race will be for an open seat. Here are some of the reasons this mayoral primary season was so different from the last one.

Weak competition - After three terms of Michael Bloomberg and two decades of Republican/Independent control of City Hall, a phalanx of heavyweight Democrats entered the race early and fought each other fiercely throughout 2013. Polls from that spring showed Bill de Blasio lagging fourth behind then Council Speaker Christine Quinn, former City Comptroller Bill Thompson, and former Congressman Anthony Weiner. The mayor barely broke into double digit support and was only two points ahead of Comptroller John Liu, whose campaign associates were on trial for misusing campaign funds. There was regularly polling including the names all the leading candidates — who raced from borough to borough and mayoral forum to mayoral forum.

That was not the case in 2017, when early polls included possible challengers and more recent polls never included the names of de Blasio’s current Democratic challengers. Several elected officials were floated early on as a possible primary opponents. Comptroller Scott Stringer, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, and Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. among them. For Stringer or Diaz, running for mayor would have meant giving up the chance to seek re-election for their current post. In February, Jeffries ruled out a run arguing he wanted to be in Washington to turn the Trump tide around.

Those who entered the race came with far less name recognition or natural bases of support.  Sal Albanese, a former City Councilmember in the 1980’s and ‘90’s, is the leading contender if for no other reason than he mustered enough financial support to qualify for the two primary debates. Robert Gangi, a long-time criminal justice advocate, ran as a staunch opponent of the mayor’s policing policies. Michael Tolkin is a technology entrepreneur who built his campaign around a website and series of online videos. Richard Bashner is a long-serving member of Brooklyn community board.

De Blasio has outraised and out-organized the lot. No victory is ever certain, but he enters Primary Day 2017 with an undisputed advantage.

Unions united - Labor split dramatically before the 2013 primary. Quinn had the backing of 32 BJ and the Hotel and Motel Trades Council. Thompson took the the teachers union and headquartered his campaign office just across the street from them. Liu had District Council 37, the city’s largest municipal workers union. Bill de Blasio was boosted by healthcare workers from 1199 SEIU and the Communication Workers of America.

In this cycle, de Blasio began consolidating labor support last year. He started with the Sanitation Workers Union and grew his support from there. All the aforementioned unions — and several others — are backing de Blasio’s re-election. Since municipal races tend to yield lower turnout, that labor support was an early and visible edge for the incumbent, who also managed to settle all the open labor contracts he inherited from his predecessor.

Scandal-singed but not scathed - For more than a year, Mayor de Blasio and several of his top aides were subject to multiple investigations into allegations of a pay-to-play culture are City Hall and questions over whether the mayor’s political non-profits violated state election law. In the spring prosecutors from the United States Attorney’s and the Manhattan District Attorney’s offices issued separate, but coordinated, statements announcing no charges would be filed but slamming the mayor for violating the spirit of the law. There have continued to be a steady stream of reports about the administration’s relationship with donors and how committed City Hall really is to transparency. Still, his exoneration pushed candidates contemplating a run against the mayor firmly to the sidelines.

Setting that all aside, in the context of the primary race, none of allegations against de Blasio’s City Hall in recent years had the impact of Sydney Leathers four years ago. That was the name of the young woman who was the undoing of Anthony Weiner’s 2013 mayoral campaign after news emerged that he had once again engaged in inappropriate cell phone communications — this time with her. Weiner was riding high in early July of 2013, and that revelation served as a kamikaze to his campaign, sending him spiraling into single digit poll numbers the week before the election. It also served to bolster de Blasio whose campaign hit an August surge after the scandal broke.

Trump stump (though maybe not bump) - Since November, the rival Mayor de Blasio has spent most of his energy railing against is President Trump. In the days following his election, de Blasio laid down markers declaring he would defend the city against policies that could threaten New Yorkers. The president lost all five boroughs except Staten Island. Early polls showed New Yorkers had mixed views on whether the mayor should be so vocal in the fight. But he’s remained unwavering in his opposition. The mayor fought for the city to be reimbursed for security costs associated with protecting Trump Tower (and won) and he’s been a leading voice in support of policies like Sanctuary Cities and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Trump serves as the perfect ideological foil for de Blasio. And it’s given him someone to campaign against, other than his lesser known opponents.

In 2013, voters judged the Democratic field against three-terms of Michael Bloomberg. Voters opted for the candidate who embodied the starkest change in direction at City Hall, with naysayers warning that the city would slip back into the crime-riddled bad old days. Those warnings never came to pass, with the city’s crime rates continuing to drop and the economy of the city continuing to perform well. While the candidates currently challenging de Blasio offer different prescriptions on how to address the city’s chronic ills — like record homelessness — the race has not been about a dramatic shift in the priorities at City Hall.


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 53

Latest Images

Trending Articles





Latest Images